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PN-III-P2-2.1-PED-2019-3942
Title:
All-sky imager-based solar power forecasting system for smart-grid
operation
Acronym:
ASIFOR
Project
duration: November 2020- June 2022
Funding:
Romanian Ministry of Education and Research, Romanian National Authority
for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNCS/CCCDI – UEFISCDI
Abstract
The main objective of this project consists in the
improvement of PV plant output power forecasts, on the road to a smart-grid
management. This is planned to be achieved by developing an innovative
forecasting tool (ASIFOR) based on tracking the state-of-the-sky using
all-sky imager data. The tool consists of three distinctive devices: (1)
The computational module, where the forecasting applications developed
within this project are implemented and which real-time controls the
forecasting process. (2) The PV plant monitoring module which provides
radiometric and meteorological data measured in-situ, data required for
running the forecasting applications and (3) The state-of-the-sky
monitoring module which quantifies and forecasts the relative position of
the Sun and clouds by sky image processing taken with a digital fisheye
camera. ASIFOR is planned to be developed at a trial product stage TRL4
(the “ugly” prototype in terms of TRL) and validated on the Solar Platform
of the West University of Timisoara. The proof of the ASIFOR concept is
ensured by the recent results of our team obtained in various domains
related to the forecasting of the PV energy production, such as the
development of enhanced models for solar resources. The novelty of this
proposal is the insertion into the forecasting statistical procedures of the
probability that the Sun will be covered or not by clouds, as result from
the direct observation of the sky. The impact of the project results can be
evaluated on minim four levels: (1) scientific (improving the forecasting
accuracy); (2) economical (notable contribution to ensuring the grid
stability, accurate forecasts will enable the computers to take control
actions for balancing the power grid); (3) technical (a new forecasting
tool); (4) practical (the project timely comes to meet the needs of the PV operators).
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